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Economic Growth in India
India's GDP growth from 2013-2022 was among the fastest globally, driven by strong domestic consumption and services sector growth. Despite short-term disruptions caused by policy changes like demonetization and GST implementation, the economy maintained robust growth. The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the economy in 2020, but India demonstrated a strong rebound in 2021-2022, aided by government stimulus and a gradual resumption of economic activities
The Indian economy recorded an average growth rate of 5.8% in the decade to 2022, above the 4.4% average for the Asia-Pacific region. In 2022, India's real GDP growth was 7.2%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
India GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for India from 2013 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
India GDP Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.9 | -5.8 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 8.2 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 2,835 | 2,674 | 3,167 | 3,355 | 3,568 |
| GDP (INR bn) | 201,036 | 198,541 | 235,974 | 269,496 | 295,357 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.4 | -1.2 | 18.9 | 14.2 | 9.6 |
| Agriculture (ann. var. %) | 6.2 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 |
| Services (ann. var. %) | 6.4 | -8.4 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 7.6 |
GDP records slowest increase since January–March 2023 in April–June
GDP reading: GDP growth moderated to 6.7% year on year in the first quarter of FY 2024 (April–June), down from 7.8% in January–March and marking the worst result since January–March 2023. The reading undershot market expectations.
Drivers: The deceleration was caused by a 0.2% fall in public consumption, which contrasted with the prior quarter’s 0.9% increase; legal constraints on spending ahead of recent elections likely caused the shrinkage. Elsewhere, economic activity was more robust. Household spending growth improved to 7.4% in April–June from a 4.0% expansion in January–March. Meanwhile, fixed investment growth accelerated to 7.5% in April–June, following the 6.5% increase logged in the previous quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services growth hit an over one-year high of 8.7% in April–June, picking up from January–March’s 8.1%. Conversely, imports of goods and services growth moderated to 4.4% in April–June (January–March: +8.3% yoy), marking the weakest reading since January–March 2023.
Panelist insight: Analysts at Nomura said: “With a sub-7% GDP growth in the first quarter of the fiscal year, and a mixed start to the second, we lower our GDP growth forecast to 6.7% y-o-y in FY25 from 6.9% previously.” Goldman Sachs analysts commented: “Going forward in H2 CY24, we expect higher sequential growth in central government capex and a sustained recovery in rural consumption, and maintain our FY25 GDP forecast at 6.5% yoy.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Indian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 43 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Indian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Indian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Indian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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