NBR Reference Rate in Romania
The NBR Reference Rate ended 2022 at 6.75%, up from the 1.75% end-2021 value, and also up from the rate of 4.00% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in Eastern Europe was 8.40% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Romania Interest Rate Chart
Romania Interest Rate Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
NBR Reference Rate (%, eop) | 2.50 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 6.75 | 7.00 |
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 4.51 | 3.08 | 5.26 | 8.31 | 6.35 |
National Bank of Romania leaves rates unchanged in October
Monetary policy rate left at 6.50%: At its meeting on 4 October, the National Bank of Romania decided to keep the monetary policy rate at 6.50%, the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 7.50% and the deposit facility rate at 5.50%. Most market analysts had anticipated the hold.
Rising inflation ahead and uncertain fiscal stance drove the decision: The Central Bank's decision was primarily driven by domestic factors: Inflation is expected to stay higher than previously anticipated through end-2024 on sustained price pressures for food and energy. Moreover, a high level of uncertainty and risks stemming from the fiscal and income policy stance—amid upcoming elections—supported the decision to hold.
Most panelists see another cut this year: The Bank did not provide specific forward guidance but stated that it would closely monitor domestic and international macroeconomic developments for future monetary policy decisions. Half of our panelists see the Bank leaving unchanged the policy rate at the last meeting of 2024, scheduled for 8 November. Looking at 2025, our Consensus is for the Bank to deliver an additional 125 basis points of cuts by year-end.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the release, Goldman Sachs analysts Kevin Daly and Johan Allen stated: “We continue to expect weakening inflation and a reduction of uncertainty to enable the NBR to cut by an additional 25bp this year.” Meanwhile, Stefan Posea and Valentin Tataru, analysts at ING, were slightly more dovish: “All in all, we expect the Bank to remain cautious for the rest of this year and keep rates in place until January 2025 at the earliest. […] We don’t exclude a 25bp rate cut in November – but in the absence of a higher-than-expected decline in September’s inflation and a cooling of the upside risks stemming from the Middle East conflict until then, this is not our base case. For 2025, we foresee a total of 100bp of rate cuts, taking the key rate to 5.50%.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Romanian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 24 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Romanian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Romanian interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Romanian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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