Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 19 December, the Central Bank decided to lower the target for the overnight...
Bank Rate in United Kingdom
The Bank of England's policy rate from 2013 to 2022 was initially maintained at historically low levels to support post-financial crisis recovery. The rates saw a gradual increase pre-pandemic but were slashed to near-zero in 2020 to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19. As the UK economy started recovering in 2021-2022, and inflationary pressures mounted, the Bank began increasing rates to control rising inflation.
The Bank Rate ended 2022 at 3.50%, up with the 0.25% end-2021 value and above the reading of 0.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average Bank Rate in Major Economies was 3.50% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
United Kingdom Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for United Kingdom from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
United Kingdom Interest Rate Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Rate (%, eop) | 0.75 | 0.10 | 0.25 | 3.50 | 5.25 |
| SONIA Rate (%, eop) | 0.71 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 3.43 | 5.19 |
| 10-Year Gilt Yield (%, eop) | 0.82 | 0.20 | 0.97 | 3.67 | 3.54 |
Central Bank leaves rates unchanged in December
Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 19 December, the Central Bank decided to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.75% with a majority vote of 6-3, where three members preferred a reduction by 0.25% points to 4.50%.
Monetary policy drivers: The decision to pause the easing cycle initiated earlier in 2024 was driven by upticks in headline inflation, core inflation and wage growth since September, as well as by a desire to assess the impact of past rate cuts.
Rate cuts to resume ahead: The Central Bank suggested that further monetary easing would be gradual in order to keep inflation in check; our Consensus is for slightly over 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2025.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Nomura analysts said: “We expect the next cut to be in February, with the voting pattern allaying some fears that the Bank may side-step the meeting. Still, next month’s November wage print and December’s services inflation reading could yet dictate the Bank’s response. We continue to look for 100bp of cuts in 2025.” ING’s James Smith was even more dovish: “The apparent growing dovish front within the MPC in spite of the latest hawkish wage data potentially suggests a greater focus on slowing activity. That reinforces our dovish view on the Bank of England for next year – we expect 150bp of cuts.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects British interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 42 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for British interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our British interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of British interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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