Angolan oil output hits ten-month high in September

Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 63.98 per barrel in October, down 5.4% from September. On 31 October, the commodity traded at USD 65.10 per barrel, down 3.0% from 30 September. The decline partly reflected seasonal trends, as travel moderated in the Northern Hemisphere due to cooler weather. On an annual basis, increases in OPEC+ quotas put pressure on prices. On the production front, Angolan oil output edged up to 1.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September from 1.03 mbpd in August, marking a second consecutive increase and the highest level so far this year. However, production fell short of the 1.13 mbpd expected by the national oil firm ANPG. The reading remained well below the 2015–2024 average of 1.39 mbpd.

Outlook: Our panelists project average crude production to recover in 2026 and strengthen further through 2029, approaching the 2015–2024 average. In the short term, output will continue to be supported by new offshore projects. TotalEnergies recently began production at two sites, adding about 60,000 bpd. Moreover, Azule Energy—a joint venture between Eni and BP—launched the Agogo IWH project in recent months, which adds 120,000 bpd and is set to reach 175,000 bpd at full capacity. Over the medium to long term, continued exploration and sustained investment should further boost output. However, structural issues such as maturing oil fields and recurring maintenance at major wells should cap the improvement. Delays in key projects remains a downside risk.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan oil projections for the next ten years from a panel of 4 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable oil forecast available for Angolan oil.

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