GDP growth remains stable in Q3

Economy continues to grow at a broadly stable pace: GDP grew by 0.3% for the fourth consecutive period in Q3 on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis. On an annual basis, economic growth accelerated to 1.2% in Q3, following the previous quarter's 0.9% expansion and marking the strongest growth since Q2 2023.

Domestic economy sends mixed signals and external demand weakens: Domestically, household spending growth improved to 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, compared to Q2’s 0.3%. On the flipside, government consumption swung into a 0.7% contraction (Q2: +3.0% qoq s.a.). Similarly, fixed investment declined by 2.0% in Q3, contrasting the 3.9% increase in the prior quarter. On the external front, net trade detracted from overall GDP growth. Exports of goods and services fell 2.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis in the third quarter, weakening from the second quarter's 2.0% contraction. In addition, imports of goods and services declined at a steeper pace of 2.1% in Q3 (Q2: -0.9% qoq s.a.), marking the worst reading since Q3 2023.

Economic growth to remain stable in 2025: Our panelists forecast quarterly GDP growth to remain near Q3’s level through Q4 2025. Similarly, economic growth will hover around 2024’s projected figure in 2025 as a whole. Expected accelerations in private spending and fixed investment, paired with rebounding exports, will broadly offset softer momentum in public spending. Notably, the ECB’s interest rate cuts should support domestic activity and external demand. Downside risks include slower-than-expected EU growth in the wake of President-elect Trump’s expected introduction of more protectionist trade policies in the U.S.

Panelist insight: EIU analysts said: “[In 2025,] Belgium's export-oriented economy (goods and services exports accounted for nearly 87% of GDP in 2023) will still feel the impact of sluggish external expansion through weak export growth and a loss of competitiveness due to wage indexation. Uncertainty and macroeconomic risks stemming from the war in Ukraine will constrain the pace of growth in investment activity. Nevertheless, automatic wage indexation will continue to support consumer spending power. Continued monetary easing in the euro zone will result in a gradual pick-up in domestic growth.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Belgian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 21 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Belgian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Belgian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Belgian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.