Economic Growth in Bulgaria
Over the past decade to 2022, Bulgaria recorded an average growth rate of 2.4% in real GDP, slightly below the Eastern Europe average of 2.5%. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Bulgaria GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Bulgaria from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Bulgaria GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.0 | -4.0 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
GDP (USD bn) | 68.9 | 70.2 | 84.0 | 90.2 | 101.1 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 61.5 | 61.6 | 71.1 | 85.8 | 93.5 |
GDP (BGN bn) | 120 | 120 | 139 | 168 | 183 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 9.5 | 0.1 | 15.3 | 20.7 | 9.0 |
GDP growth ticks up slightly in Q1 2024
According to a second release, GDP growth gathered pace to 1.8% year on year in the first quarter of 2024 from 1.7% in the fourth quarter of last year. Q1's reading marked the best result since Q2 2023 and exceeded the preliminary estimate of a 1.7% rise. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth slowed to 0.4% in Q1 from the previous quarter's 0.5% growth.
The improvement was fueled by domestic demand. Private consumption increased 3.9% in the first quarter (Q4 2023: +3.4% yoy), supported by the lowest average inflation in nearly three years and accelerating wage growth. Moreover, growth in public consumption improved to 1.4% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +0.6% yoy). In addition, fixed investment growth accelerated to 7.9% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +4.7% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services declined 2.1% year on year in Q1, unchanged from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services dropped at a softer rate of 3.7% in Q1 (Q4 2023: -4.5% yoy), marking the best reading since Q1 2023.
Looking ahead, GDP growth is set to gradually accelerate during the remainder of 2024, bringing full-year growth comfortably above 2023’s rate. Investment and public spending will remain the key engines of growth, while exports are expected to stage a recovery later in the year. Renewed political instability and sticky inflation are downside risks, while stronger-than-expected EU demand is an upside risk.
EIU analysts commented on the outlook: “We continue to forecast Bulgarian growth of 2.2% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025. We may revise up our headline growth forecasts for 2024-25 depending on the policy priorities of the next government. We expect a new centre-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB)-led coalition to be formed, but there is still a risk that coalition negotiations will fail and another snap election be called.” UniCredit analyst Kristofor Pavlov said: “We now expect stronger private consumption growth this year, on the back of a more pronounced acceleration of real wage growth and household credit growth than we anticipated three months ago. The latter would be offset by a weaker positive contribution to growth from investment. We think political uncertainty will weigh on private sector investment and will delay the implementation of structural measures needed to push through the absorption of EU funds from the country’s RRP.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Bulgarian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 24 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Bulgarian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Bulgarian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Bulgarian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
Latest Global GDP News
-
A second release confirmed that GDP rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q2, a less sharp expansion...
-
Qatar: Economy stagnates in Q4
According to a preliminary reading, GDP was stagnant year on year in the fourth quarter of 2023, below the upwardly... -
Belgium: GDP growth eases in Q2
Activity softened somewhat in Q2, with GDP expanding 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis (Q1: +0.3 s.a. qoq) and... -
Latvia: GDP growth records best result since Q1 2023 in Q2
GDP growth picked up to 0.5% year on year in the second quarter, from 0.1% in the first quarter and... -
Czech Republic: GDP growth ebbs in Q2
The economy lost steam in the second quarter, with GDP growth inching down to 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter... -
Estonia: GDP falls at softest pace in over two years in Q2
GDP dropped at a slower rate of 1.0% year on year in the second quarter, above the 2.2% contraction tallied... -
Lithuania: Growth more than halves from Q1 in Q2
GDP growth waned to 1.3% year on year in Q2, from 3.0% in Q1, according to seasonally and calendar-adjusted data....