United Kingdom: GDP growth undershoots market expectations in the third quarter
GDP reading: GDP growth slowed to 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the third quarter, down...
Economic Growth in Canada
Canada experienced stable but moderate GDP growth from 2013 to 2022. The economy benefited from brisk population growth, close ties to a robust U.S. economy, strong natural resource sectors and improved trade ties with Asian and European economies thanks to participation in new free trade deals. Post-pandemic recovery in 2021-2022 was supported by fiscal stimulus and rebounding global demand.
The Canadian economy recorded an average growth rate of 1.8% in the decade to 2022, in line with the 1.8% average for Major Economies. In 2022, the real GDP growth was 3.4%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Canada GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Canada from 2022 to 2020.
Source: Macrobond.
Canada GDP Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.9 | -5.0 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,743 | 1,656 | 2,008 | 2,161 | 2,143 |
| GDP (CAD bn) | 2,314 | 2,221 | 2,517 | 2,813 | 2,892 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.5 | -4.0 | 13.4 | 11.8 | 2.8 |
Economy flatlines in August
GDP reading: GDP was flat month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms in August (July: +0.1% mom), in line with the preliminary estimate and market expectations. On an annual basis, monthly GDP rose at a more moderate pace of 1.3% in August (July: +1.4% yoy).
Drivers: In August, a slight increase in services activity was offset by lower manufacturing output. Within manufacturing, chemicals and pharmaceuticals saw particularly sharp falls, while the rise in services output was dampened by work stoppages at rail companies hitting transport activity.
GDP outlook: GDP is estimated to have risen 0.3% in September due to increases in finance, construction, and retail partially offset by decreases in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. This suggests that the economy expanded by close to 1% in quarter-on-quarter terms over Q3 as a whole—a particularly disappointing reading given the current fast rate of population growth.
Panelist insight: Desjardins’ LJ Valencia said: “In September, the strong advance in housing starts and home sales point to signs of an economic tailwind. Headline job numbers also increased, but it wasn’t enough to keep up with the current population trend, suggesting the persistence of slack in the third quarter. Indeed, real GDP continues to lag the pace of population growth.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Canadian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 42 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Canadian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Canadian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Canadian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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