GDP growth hits a joint three-year high in Q4

GDP growth gains steam in Q4: A second release upgraded the preliminary estimate for economic growth in Q4 and revealed that the economy closed out 2024 on a stronger footing: GDP growth sped up to 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4 (preliminary reading: +0.5% qoq s.a.), improving from Q3’s upwardly revised 0.6% rise and marking the joint-fastest increase since Q4 2021. On an annual basis, economic growth picked up to 1.8% in Q4 from the previous period's 1.4% increase, marking the strongest expansion since Q3 2022. As a result, in 2024 as a whole, the economy expanded by 1.0%, improving from 2023’s 0.1% expansion but remaining entrenched below the 10-year pre-pandemic average of 2.5%.

Private consumption acts as economy’s Atlas in Q4: Domestically, private consumption growth was the main engine of the sequential upturn, speeding up to 1.5% in Q4 (Q3: +0.9% qoq s.a.)—the best reading since Q3 2021—bolstered by healthy real wage growth. That said, public consumption dropped for the first time since Q1 2022, contracting 0.3% in Q4 (Q3: +0.8% qoq s.a.). Moreover, fixed investment declined 1.5% in Q4 (Q3: +0.7% qoq s.a.), stepping into negative territory for the second time in 2024. On the external front, exports of goods and services swung into contraction, dropping 1.5% in Q4 (Q3: +2.0% qoq s.a.), likely hampered in part by economic malaise in key trade partner Germany. Meanwhile addition, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 1.8% in Q4 (Q3: +3.6% qoq s.a.).

GDP outlook: Our panelists expect sequential GDP growth to remain around Q4 levels throughout 2025. As a result, our Consensus is for economic growth to edge closer to the pre-pandemic 10-year average in 2025: Fixed investment should rebound on the back of lower interest rates, and private consumption should accelerate. Moreover, exports should gain momentum, bolstered by stronger EU demand. U.S. trade policy will be key to monitor.

Panelist insight: Jiri Polansky, analyst at Erste Bank, commented: “We see risks as significant and skewed to the downside. If a trade war between the US and the EU occurs, Czech economic growth could be about half a percentage point lower, depending on the scope and magnitude of tariffs and their timing. The economic situation in Germany remains another risk, especially in the event of a delayed recovery.”

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