GDP growth slows in the third quarter

Growth eases in Q3: GDP growth slowed to 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter, down from 1.2% in the second quarter. On annual basis, economic growth accelerated to 2.4% in Q3, from the previous quarter's 2.3% expansion and marking the best result since Q2 2023.

Domestic demand and exports moderate: The downturn was broad-based, with private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and exports all weakening. Private consumption growth edged down to 0.1% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q3 compared to a 0.3% expansion in Q2. Government consumption dropped, contracting 0.9% in Q3 (Q2: +2.0% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, fixed investment contracted 1.1% in Q3, marking the worst reading since Q1 2023 (Q2: +1.4% s.a. qoq). On the external front, exports of goods and services increased 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter's 2.9% expansion. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 0.9% in Q3 (Q2: +4.3% s.a. qoq), marking the worst reading since Q1 2023.

Healthy growth seen in 2025: Our panelists expect sequential GDP growth to tick down slightly in Q4 from Q3. Looking at 2025, our Consensus is for growth to hover around 2024’s projection, remaining among the highest in the Euro area. Public spending is set to rebound as the government slows the pace of its fiscal consolidation. Moreover, exports are seen gaining steam, buoyed by stronger EU demand. Meanwhile, fixed investment should remain supportive. Less positively, private spending expected to lose some steam. An escalation of conflict in the Middle East is a downside risk, as it would raise energy prices and therefore hurt Greece’s domestic and foreign demand.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Greek government consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 12 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable government consumption forecast available for Greek government consumption.

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