GDP records slowest increase since January–March 2023 in April–June

GDP reading: GDP growth moderated to 6.7% year on year in the first quarter of FY 2024 (April–June), down from 7.8% in January–March and marking the worst result since January–March 2023. The reading undershot market expectations.

Drivers: The deceleration was caused by a 0.2% fall in public consumption, which contrasted with the prior quarter’s 0.9% increase; legal constraints on spending ahead of recent elections likely caused the shrinkage. Elsewhere, economic activity was more robust. Household spending growth improved to 7.4% in April–June from a 4.0% expansion in January–March. Meanwhile, fixed investment growth accelerated to 7.5% in April–June, following the 6.5% increase logged in the previous quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services growth hit an over one-year high of 8.7% in April–June, picking up from January–March’s 8.1%. Conversely, imports of goods and services growth moderated to 4.4% in April–June (January–March: +8.3% yoy), marking the weakest reading since January–March 2023.

Panelist insight: Analysts at Nomura said: “With a sub-7% GDP growth in the first quarter of the fiscal year, and a mixed start to the second, we lower our GDP growth forecast to 6.7% y-o-y in FY25 from 6.9% previously.” Goldman Sachs analysts commented: “Going forward in H2 CY24, we expect higher sequential growth in central government capex and a sustained recovery in rural consumption, and maintain our FY25 GDP forecast at 6.5% yoy.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Indian exports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable exports forecast available for Indian exports.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Indian exports projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Indian exports forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.