Growth more than halves from Q1 in Q2

GDP reading: GDP growth waned to 1.3% year on year in Q2, from 3.0% in Q1, according to seasonally and calendar-adjusted data. The moderation was weaker than the 1.9% rise reported in the preliminary release and was driven by weakening private consumption, fixed investment and exports. On a seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth ebbed to 0.7% in Q2, following the previous period's 0.9% increase

Drivers: Looking at the details of the release, household spending increased 2.7% in the second quarter, which was below the first quarter's 3.5% expansion. Moreover, fixed investment contracted 4.8% in Q2, marking the worst reading in four years (Q1: +3.3% yoy). Meanwhile, government consumption improved to a 0.5% increase in Q2 (Q1: +0.1% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services worsened, contracting 3.0% in Q2 (Q1: +1.1% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services declined at a steeper rate of 2.1% in Q2 (Q1: -0.9% yoy).

Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented on the outlook: “The data so far support our full-year real GDP growth forecast of 2%; we expect export growth to flatten out on the back of modest growth in the EU, with rising domestic demand in Lithuania fuelling imports. […] The risks to this forecast are nonetheless considerable. Foremost among them for Lithuania are geopolitical risks relating to Russia, but also slower than expected growth in the EU, on which Lithuania's export recovery is largely premised.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Lithuanian exports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable exports forecast available for Lithuanian exports.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Lithuanian exports projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Lithuanian exports forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.