Industry in Nigeria
The economy recorded an average growth rate of -0.7% in industrial output in the decade to 2022. In 2022, industrial output growth was -4.6%, a decline over the -0.5% rate of the prior year. For more industry information, visit our dedicated page.
Nigeria Industry Chart
Nigeria Industry Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Industry (ann. var. %) | 2.3 | -5.8 | -0.5 | -4.6 | 0.7 |
GDP growth improves in Q2
GDP reading: GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% year on year in the second quarter, above the 3.0% expansion recorded in the first quarter. The print was in line with market expectations.
Drivers: The improvement was driven by stronger momentum in the oil sector, where growth rose to 10.1% from 5.7% in Q1. Meanwhile, growth in the non-oil sector matched Q1’s 2.8% as improvements in agriculture and construction offset deteriorations in manufacturing and services. The agricultural sector gained steam, growing 1.4% in Q2 (Q1: +0.2% yoy). Moreover, the construction sector rebounded, posting a 1.0% expansion in Q2 after contracting by 2.1% in Q1. On the flip side, manufacturing sector growth eased to 1.3% in Q2, following the 1.5% rise logged in the previous quarter. In addition, the services sector grew 3.8% in the second quarter, decelerating from the first quarter's 4.3% increase and marking the slowest growth since Q1 2021.
GDP outlook: Our panelists expect GDP growth to broadly match H1’s pace in H2. Rising output from the Dangote refinery will provide support. That said, tighter financing conditions and elevated inflation will hamper domestic demand. Moreover, the recent escalation in social turmoil could jeopardize ongoing economic reforms. A deterioration in the security situation of the oil-producing Niger Delta is an additional downside risk.
Panelist insight: Analysts at Fitch Solutions commented on the outlook: “We expect that economic growth will remain around the 3.0% mark in Q3 2024 and Q4. Oil production expanded by a robust 10.2% y-o-y in June-July—supported by production at the Madu Oil Field—indicating that the hydrocarbon sector will continue to support economic growth in H2. In addition, we expect that the start of petrol production at the Dangote Refinery in September will lower imports and thus support net exports in Q4 2024.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Nigerian industry projections for the next ten years from a panel of 3 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable industry forecast available for Nigerian industry.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Nigerian industry projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Nigerian industry forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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