Central Bank extends pause in October

Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 1–2 October, the Central Bank once again decided to keep interest rates unchanged, with the reference rate remaining at 5.75%, the Lombard rate at 6.25%, the deposit rate at 5.25%, the rediscount rate at 5.80% and the discount rate at 5.85%.

Energy price and wage pressures force hold: Despite relatively low demand and cost pressures in the domestic economy and abroad plus a strong zloty, strong wage growth and rising energy prices fanned inflation in April–September, necessitating higher-for-longer interest rates and preventing the Bank from pivoting like its regional peers.

Policy outlook: The Central Bank did not provide explicit forward guidance. However, in subsequent remarks to the press, Governor Glapinski stated that the Bank may start easing as early as March, in contrast to his previous estimation of 2026. Our panelists expect rates to remain stable until the end of 2024 before dropping in either Q2 2025 or Q3 2025. Higher-than-expected inflation due to energy cost spikes poses an upside risk, while a weaker-than-anticipated economy or stronger-than-projected zloty pose downside risks. The Bank will reconvene on 5–6 November.

Panelist insight: ING analysts Adam Antoniak and Piotr Poplawski commented on the outlook: “We expect a discussion on the beginning of easing in Poland to be sparked by the central bank's March 2025 projection and a reversal of the inflation trend. We expect a local peak in CPI inflation in March at around 6% YoY. We expect the Council to cut NBP rates by 25bp in the second quarter of 2025, while the reference rate may be reduced by 100bp next year.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Polish interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 25 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Polish interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Polish interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Polish interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.