Economic Growth in Serbia
The Serbian economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.6% in the decade to 2022, slightly above the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, Serbia's real GDP growth was 2.3%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Serbia GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Serbia from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Serbia GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.3 | -0.9 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
GDP (USD bn) | 51.5 | 53.4 | 63.1 | 63.5 | 75.2 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 46.0 | 46.8 | 53.3 | 60.4 | 69.5 |
GDP (RSD bn) | 5,422 | 5,504 | 6,272 | 7,098 | 8,150 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.9 | 1.5 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 14.8 |
GDP growth records fastest expansion since Q4 2021 in the first quarter
Economic growth sped up in the first quarter, with GDP expanding 4.7% on an annual basis (Q4 2023: +3.8% yoy). Q1's reading marked an over two-year high and was marginally above the 4.6% flash estimate. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth slowed to 0.8% in Q1, compared to the previous quarter's 1.0% expansion. Q1's reading marked the softest expansion since Q1 2023.
Private consumption growth accelerated to 4.4% in Q1 compared to 2.5% in Q4, as inflation continued its downtrend. Additionally, fixed investment growth hit an over two-year high of 7.3% in the first quarter, up from the fourth quarter's 5.2%. Less positively, public consumption growth moderated to 3.6% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +5.9% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services gained steam, posting a 1.1% expansion in Q1 (Q4 2023: +0.3% yoy). Meanwhile, imports of goods and services growth moderated to 3.2% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +4.2% yoy).
Early data for Q2 points to slightly softer momentum, and our panelists expect growth to decelerate; business surveys suggest that rising headwinds in the construction and industrial sectors are constraining activity. Nonetheless, looking at 2024 as a whole, the economy should expand at a faster pace than in 2023, as lower inflation boosts domestic demand. Tensions with Kosovo remain a key factor to track.
Analysts at Fitch Solutions commented on risks to the outlook: “Risks to our outlook are broadly balanced. Should upward pressures on inflation materialise due to our stronger private consumption outlook, the NBS may be induced to hold its policy rate high for longer than expected, weighing on the already modest gains in investment that we currently expect. On the other hand, net trade may perform better than expected in case of upside surprises to the eurozone growth outlook.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 25 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Serbian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Serbian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Serbian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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