The Toronto skyline in Canada

Canadá Economic Data & Projections

Canada economic overview

High standard of living:

Canada has a developed market economy, which is among the 10 largest in the world in nominal GDP terms. Elevated purchasing power and the high quality of public-service provision contribute to Canada frequently being considered to have one of the highest standards of living in the world.

Natural resource abundance:

Canada is rich in natural resources, notably oil sands, which make it the world's fourth-largest oil producer. The country also has significant reserves of natural gas, minerals, and timber. Moreover, Canada is one of the largest exporters of agricultural products globally. Key products include grains, oilseeds, and livestock, with the agri-food sector extending into food processing and distribution. This unusually large primary sector worth well over 10% of GDP makes Canada atypical among major advanced economies.

Manufacturing and services sectors:

Canada's manufacturing industry has particular strengths in vehicles, aircraft, and industrial machinery, with key manufacturing hubs located in Ontario and Quebec. That said, the economy is dominated by the services sector, which accounts for around four-fifths of total employment and three-quarters of GDP. Key services exports are travel, financial and IT services, with Toronto acting as the country's major financial center.

Free trade promoter:

Trade is a critical component of Canada's economy, with the U.S. being by far its largest trading partner. Canada actively engages in free trade agreements, including the CETA (Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement) with the European Union and the CPTPP with other Pacific-rim economies. However, the most crucial free trade deal for Canada is the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement).

Challenges:

A reliance on the U.S. economy—which has been a boon in recent years given a strong U.S. performance—also poses a risk to Canada's outlook. Moreover, housing affordability is a growing concern; average house prices have more than doubled since 2011, and household debt is the highest in the G7. Balancing the desire to exploit the country's large energy resources with climate protection goals will also be a challenge. Moreover, the large industrial subsidies implemented by the U.S. in 2021 could threaten Canadian manufacturing: the Canadian government has announced subsidies for the clean energy sector in response.

Canada's economic outlook:

Over the last decade, GDP growth has been around the G7 average, but it is forecast to average slightly above the G7 average in the coming years. High rates of immigration, enhanced commercial ties with the EU and pacific-rim economies and the strong expansion in the neighboring U.S. will provide support.

Canada's economy in numbers:

Nominal GDP of USD 2,161 billion in 2022.

Nominal GDP of USD 2,143 billion in 2023.

GDP per capita of USD 53,619 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

GDP per capita of USD 55,627 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

Average real GDP growth of 1.9% over the last decade.

Average real GDP growth of 1.8% over the last decade.

Share of the region's population
Share of the region's GDP

Economic structure:

In 2018, services accounted for 74% of overall GDP, manufacturing 10%, other industrial activity 14%, and agriculture 2%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 55% of GDP in 2021, government consumption 22%, fixed investment 24%, and net exports -1%.

GDP by economic sector
GDP by type of expenditure

International trade:

In 2021, manufactured products made up 42% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 26%, food 14%, ores and metals 9% and agricultural raw materials 5%, with other categories accounting for 4% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 76% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 6%, food 9%, ores and metals 4% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 4% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 598 billion in 2022, while total imports were USD 582 billion.

Key exports
Key imports
Key export partners
Key import partners

Economic growth:

Over the last decade, Canada's economy benefited from brisk population growth, close ties to a robust U.S. economy, strong natural resource sectors and improved trade ties with Asian and European economies thanks to participation in new free trade deals. GDP growth frequently clocked over 2% per year, above the G7 average. Following a contraction in 2020, post-pandemic recovery in 2021-2023 was supported by fiscal stimulus and rebounding global demand. To read more about GDP growth in Canada, go to our dedicated page.

Fiscal policy:

Canada maintained a relatively stable fiscal position from 2013 to 2019 thanks to prudent economic management. However, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a significant increase in the deficit due to emergency spending and economic support measures. That said, this deficit was largely wiped out by 2023 as emergency spending disappeared and the economy enjoyed a robust post-pandemic recovery. Find out more on our dedicated page.

Unemployment:

Canada's unemployment rate over the last decade generally remained within a moderate range, reflecting the country's stable and growing economy. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant spike in 2020, but a strong recovery followed, and by 2022, the rate was below pre-pandemic levels, indicating the resilience of Canada's job market. For more information on Canada's unemployment click here.

Inflation:

Canada maintained a relatively stable inflation rate from 2013 to 2019, averaging close to 2%. The country's inflation management strategies, including a strong monetary policy framework, contributed to this stability. However, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a temporary rise in inflation, driven by supply chain disruptions and government stimulus measures. By the end of 2022, the inflation rate had started to recede, indicating the effectiveness of the Bank of Canada's measures in controlling price increases. Go to our Canada inflation page for extra insight.

Monetary Policy:

Over the last decade, Canada's central bank policy rates experienced cycles of reduction and increase. The rates were lowered to near-zero during the COVID-19 pandemic to support the economy. However, as the economy began recovering, the central bank increased rates to manage inflationary pressures. See our Canada monetary policy page for additional details.

Exchange Rate:

The Canadian dollar's exchange rate has depreciated overall in the last decade, but has seen substantial volatility in response to fluctuations in global oil prices (oil is Canada's key merchandise export), interest rates and domestic economic conditions. For more info on the Canadian dollar, click here.
Though Q2’s GDP growth was the fastest since Q1 2023, it was inflated by aircraft purchases and a large increase in government spending; readings for private consumption and exports of goods worsened in the quarter. Our Consensus is for the economy to have slowed in Q3, as government spending and fixed investment lost steam following the surges seen in Q2. In contrast, private consumption and exports likely performed better than in the second quarter, the latter thanks to the recently expanded Transmountain oil pipeline. Looking at available data, GDP increased by 0.2% month on month in July, despite wildfires affecting sectors like accommodation, mining, and transport. Flash data then points to flat economic activity month on month in August, as increases in oil and gas extraction and the public sector offset contractions in manufacturing plus transportation and warehousing.
Projections out to 2034.

58 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.

Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 42 expert analysts.

Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Canada in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 58 economic indicators for Canada from a panel of 42 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Canada economy. To download a sample report on the Canada's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.

Canadá Datos económicos

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Población (millones) 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.2 38.7
PIB (en millones de dólares) 1,725 1,743 1,648 2,002 2,139
PIB per cápita (USD) 46,612 46,441 43,365 52,362 55,216
PIB (en miles de millones de dólares canadienses) 2,236 2,314 2,210 2,510 2,785
Crecimiento económico (PIB nominal, var. anual) 4.4 3.5 -4.5 13.6 11.0
Crecimiento económico (PIB, var. anual) 2.8 1.9 -5.1 5.0 3.4
Demanda interna (% var. anual) 2.7 1.3 -3.8 5.8 2.7
Consumo privado (% var. anual) 2.6 1.5 -6.3 5.1 4.8
Consumo público (var. anual) 3.2 1.0 1.3 6.4 2.0
Inversión fija no residencial (% var. anual) 3.5 3.2 -11.6 4.3 7.8
Inversión fija (% var. anual) 2.5 0.8 -2.4 7.4 -1.5
Exportaciones (G&S, % var. anual) 3.8 2.7 -8.9 1.4 2.6
Importaciones (G&S, % var. anual) 3.3 0.4 -9.3 7.8 7.2
Producción industrial (% var. anual) 3.5 0.1 -8.2 4.5 3.3
Ventas al por menor (% var. anual) 3.2 1.4 -1.3 11.8 8.2
Índice de precios de la vivienda (var. anual %) 3.7 1.2 6.5 15.0 11.4
Renta disponible (var. anual) 3.0 4.5 8.4 4.1 5.2
Salarios (% var. anual) 2.6 2.7 6.8 3.0 3.2
Desempleo (% de la población activa, eop) 5.7 5.6 8.9 6.0 5.0
Desempleo (% de la población activa, aop) 5.9 5.7 9.7 7.5 5.3
Saldo fiscal (% del PIB) 0.4 0.0 -10.9 -4.4 -
Deuda pública (% del PIB) 88.9 87.2 117.8 112.9 102.2
Inflación (IPC, % var. anual, eop) 2.0 2.2 0.7 4.8 6.3
Inflación (IPC, % var. anual, aop) 2.3 1.9 0.7 3.4 6.8
Inflación (subyacente, % var. anual, aop) 1.5 1.8 1.2 2.8 5.6
Inflación (IPP, % var. anual, aop) 3.9 -0.1 -0.4 13.9 12.8
Objetivo del tipo de interés a un día (%, eop) 1.75 1.75 0.25 0.25 4.25
T-Bill a 3 meses (%, eop) 1.64 1.66 0.06 0.16 4.23
Rendimiento de los bonos a 10 años (%, eop) 1.98 1.71 0.71 1.49 3.30
Tipo de cambio (CAD por USD, eop) 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4
Tipo de cambio (CAD por USD, aop) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Balanza por cuenta corriente (en millones de dólares) -41 -34 -35 -5 -8
Balanza por cuenta corriente (% del PIB) -2.4 -2.0 -2.2 -0.3 -0.4
Balanza comercial de mercancías (en millones de USD) -17 -14 -30 4 17
Exportaciones de mercancías (en millones de dólares) 452 449 390 507 598
Importaciones de mercancías (en millones de dólares) 469 463 420 504 581
Exportaciones de mercancías (% var. anual) 6.6 -0.8 -13.2 30.3 17.9
Inversión extranjera directa (en millones de dólares) 38 50 23 60 -

Frequently Asked Question about Canada's Economy

  1. What is Canada's major industry?

  2. Canada's main industry is the services sector, which dominates its economy, including finance, real estate, and business services. Additionally, it has significant natural resource industries like oil and gas, forestry, and mining.

  3. What is Canada's biggest export?

  4. Canada's biggest export is crude oil, particularly to the United States. This is a significant part of Canada's economy, reflecting the country's substantial oil reserves, primarily in Alberta's oil sands, and its status as one of the world's top oil producers and exporters.

  5. Is Canada doing well economically?

  6. Canada's economy is performing well, marked by a strong, diversified economy, low unemployment, and robust exports. Other economic strengths include abundant natural resources, an educated population, and strong trade ties. However, it faces challenges relating to housing affordability and household debt.

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