Guatemala Monetary Policy November 2023

Guatemala: Key policy rate left at 5.00% in November

On 29 November, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) unanimously decided to keep the key policy rate at 5.00%, marking the fifth consecutive hold.

Explaining its decision, the Bank said that the slight rise in inflation seen in October was due to temporary factors, namely distribution problems that temporarily limited the supply of some goods. These problems should subside in the medium term, and the Bank still expects inflation to remain within the 3.0–5.0% target range at the end of this year.

Consistent with previous communications, the Bank did not provide forward guidance; it merely reaffirmed its dedication to controlling inflation and maintaining stable inflation expectations. Our panelists think Banguat has reached the end of its hiking cycle and anticipate monetary easing next year.

The date of the next monetary policy meeting has yet to be determined but will likely be in early 2024.