Rusia Actividad económica May 2023

Rusia: Inflation rises in May

Inflation rose to 2.5% in May, above April’s 2.3%. This marked the first increase in over a year and came on the back of accelerating services inflation and a rebound in non-food prices. That sad, food prices slumped in May, keeping a lid on the overall upturn.

The trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 10.3% in May (April: 11.6%). Meanwhile, core inflation ticked up to 2.1% in May, from April’s 2.0%.

Finally, consumer prices rose 0.31% from the previous month in May, moderating from April’s 0.38% rise. May’s result marked the weakest reading since October 2022.

Our panel of analysts forecast inflation to pick up notably in the second half of the year. Easing base effect, a tight labor market, a weak ruble, strong consumer demand and volatile external environment will all drive inflation higher in H2. Inflationary risks remained skewed to the upside.