Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
The region will see stronger GDP growth in 2025; lower inflation and a more favorable monetary policy backdrop should support domestic demand. Further progress on debt restructuring deals and economic reforms will add tailwinds. Extreme weather phenomena and election-related uncertainty remain key downside risks.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation decelerated further in September, and again in October in the majority of countries with available data. Inflation should trend down ahead in most countries in the region thanks to past interest rate hikes and high base effects. Weaker-than-expected currencies and extreme weather are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2022.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.4 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 14.9 | 15.0 | 18.2 | 16.4 | 16.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.6 | -6.9 | -5.1 | -4.6 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 47.5 | 55.0 | 54.5 | 54.3 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.8 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 14.8 | 15.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 10.09 | 8.50 | 8.29 | 11.62 | 13.25 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | -2.3 | -0.6 | -1.7 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 278 | 229 | 315 | 367 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 260 | 217 | 268 | 323 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 150 | 138 | - | - | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 39.7 | 44.8 | 41.0 | 39.0 | - |
| 1.7 | -2.4 | 11.6 | 1.2 | - | |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,961 | 1,768 | 1,959 | 2,060 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.7 | -1.8 | 4.9 | 3.6 | - |
| 4.8 | -9.2 | 4.8 | 4.4 | - |