ASEAN Economic Outlook
ASEAN growth will exceed both 2024’s projection and the world average in 2025 on accelerations in investment and goods exports, backed by the global electronics sector upcycle. Additionally, lower inflation and interest rates plus public stimulus should support domestic demand at large. Protectionist U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions are downside risks.
ASEAN Inflation
In September, ASEAN inflation fell to the lowest level since March 2021, but available data suggests disinflation may have stalled in October following extreme weather events. ASEAN inflation will fall from 2024’s projection in 2025 on past interest rate hikes. A stronger-than-expected La Niña weather event and weaker regional currencies are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2023 to 2019.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,959 | 4,671 | 5,082 | 5,432 | 5,566 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.2 | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.97 | 2.66 | 2.59 | 4.50 | 4.91 |
| 3.3 | -8.7 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.0 | -3.1 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.1 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,466 | 1,432 | 1,773 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,332 | 1,213 | 1,550 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 919 | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 82.2 | 91.6 | 90.3 | 84.1 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 48.3 | 58.4 | 60.9 | 63.7 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - | - |
| 5.2 | -4.0 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 4.7 | |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.4 | -3.6 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.9 |