ASEAN Economic Outlook
ASEAN GDP growth will broadly match 2024’s level in 2025. Investment and exports will benefit from the global tech sector upturn and export frontloading in anticipation of higher U.S. tariffs. Easing inflation and interest rates in most economies plus public stimulus should provide further tailwinds. Downside risks include geopolitical turmoil and U.S. protectionism.
ASEAN Inflation
In October, inflation rose in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam but cooled in Indonesia and Singapore. Going forward, ASEAN inflation should average near 2024’s expected level in 2025 as past interest rate hikes largely offset upside pressures due to extreme weather. A severe La Niña weather event and weaker regional currencies are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2023 to 2019.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,974 | 4,685 | 5,096 | 5,448 | 5,584 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.1 | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.97 | 2.66 | 2.59 | 4.50 | 4.91 |
| 3.4 | -8.7 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 3.8 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.0 | -3.1 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.1 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,466 | 1,432 | 1,773 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,332 | 1,213 | 1,550 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 919 | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 82.0 | 91.3 | 90.0 | 83.8 | 83.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 48.2 | 58.2 | 60.7 | 63.5 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - | - |
| 5.2 | -4.0 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 4.9 | |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.4 | -3.6 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.9 |