Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
In 2025, regional GDP growth will hover near 2024’s forecast level as the expansions in private spending and investment remain at a steady pace. That said, accelerating exports will provide tailwinds. Potentially higher tariffs under a Trump presidency are a downside risk to regional economies, while shifts in U.S. growth are a two-sided risk.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In August, regional price pressures cooled, and eased further in most economies in September. Regional inflation will average above 2024’s projection in 2025 as a whole following monetary policy easing. Weaker-than-expected regional currencies and a stronger-than-anticipated La Niña weather event are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2021.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | - | - | 4.5 | - | |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 49.7 | 62.4 | 58.4 | 54.8 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 61.6 | 74.2 | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 130.9 | 107.4 | 145.6 | 180.4 | 168.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 6.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,885 | 5,448 | 6,078 | 6,729 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.2 | -7.3 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 3.2 |
| 1.2 | - | - | 5.6 | - | |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.1 | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.1 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 5.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.57 | 2.06 | 2.46 | 6.35 | 5.65 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.3 | 0.4 | - | -1.7 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 79.6 | 70.2 | 93.5 | 112.1 | 101.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 64.0 | 74.0 | 68.5 | 64.5 | - |