CIS Countries Economic Outlook
The CIS economy will lose steam for a second consecutive year in 2025, as a protracted Russia-Ukraine war, labor shortages, and high interest rates and inflation dent momentum in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. A strong expansion in Kazakhstan will add some impetus. That said, the outlook is clouded by uncertain U.S. aid in Ukraine, geopolitical conflict and sanctions.
CIS Countries Inflation
Faster price growth in Ukraine and Kazakhstan drove CIS inflation up to 8.3% in October (September: 8.2%). Inflation will slow from 2024 in 2025 due to high interest rates and sluggish domestic demand. That said, it will remain elevated by global standards on war-induced cost pressures. Energy price spikes, currency depreciation and protracted war are downside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2020.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | -4.9 | 9.2 | -1.8 | - | |
| 4.1 | -5.3 | 7.8 | 3.4 | - | |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,844 | 7,055 | 8,638 | 10,162 | 9,565 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.5 | -2.6 | 5.5 | -1.7 | 4.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.9 | -2.0 | 5.2 | -1.4 | 4.3 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 448 | 410 | 512 | 500 | 565 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 663 | 721 | 759 | 714 | 746 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 39.4 | 43.5 | 37.0 | 28.5 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 1.2 | -3.9 | -0.3 | -2.6 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 18.7 | 25.3 | 21.9 | 23.6 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 5.0 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 7.14 | 5.00 | 8.65 | 9.43 | 15.36 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 0.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 604 | 488 | 712 | 834 | 651 |