CIS Countries Economic Outlook
The regional economy will lose headway in 2025 from 2024’s projected rate: Labor shortages plus elevated inflation and interest rates will take their toll on activity in Russia and Belarus as the war in Ukraine rages on. That said, faster growth in Ukraine and Kazakhstan will limit the slowdown. Protracted geopolitical conflict and sanctions are key downside risks.
CIS Countries Inflation
Softer price growth in most regional economies drove CIS inflation down to 8.2% in September (August: 8.5%). After an expected uptick in 2024, inflation will ease in 2025 on tight borrowing conditions but remain elevated by global standards amid war-induced cost spikes. Energy prices, the strength of CIS currencies and geopolitical strife are two-sided risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2020.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | -4.8 | 9.2 | -1.8 | - | |
| 4.1 | -5.2 | 7.8 | 3.4 | - | |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,844 | 7,055 | 8,638 | 10,162 | 9,565 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.5 | -2.6 | 5.5 | -1.7 | 4.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.9 | -2.0 | 5.2 | -1.4 | 4.3 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 448 | 410 | 512 | 500 | 565 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 663 | 721 | 759 | 714 | 746 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 39.4 | 43.5 | 37.0 | 28.5 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 1.2 | -3.9 | -0.4 | -2.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 18.7 | 25.3 | 21.9 | 23.6 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 5.0 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 7.14 | 5.00 | 8.65 | 9.43 | 15.36 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 0.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 604 | 488 | 712 | 835 | 651 |