East Asia Economic Outlook
East Asia’s GDP growth will be below the Asia (ex-Japan) average next year. Electronics exports will benefit from rising global AI demand, and overall exports could benefit early in the year from frontloading. Moreover, the rollout of stimulus in China should prop up the regional economy. The timing and extent of eventual U.S. tariffs hikes are a key factor to watch.
East Asia Inflation
In October vs September, inflation fell in China, Korea and Taiwan. Other countries had yet to report October data at the time of writing. East Asia’s 2025 inflation rate is forecast to average the lowest among all world regions, due largely to China’s huge domestic manufacturing capacity and intense competitive pressures in some sectors.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2022.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,373 | 11,659 | 13,958 | 13,908 | 13,906 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 |
| 5.7 | -2.9 | 11.6 | 2.9 | - | |
| 4.4 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 4.8 | 2.6 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -5.8 | -3.3 | -4.4 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 55.6 | 64.4 | 66.5 | 71.7 | 77.6 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.72 | 3.34 | 3.38 | 3.56 | 3.44 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,888 | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,437 | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,556 | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 16.6 | 18.5 | 17.6 | 16.4 | - |