East Asia Economic Outlook
East Asia’s GDP growth is set to ease in 2025 versus 2024 on an export slowdown, as tourist arrivals normalize and global trade restrictions increase. That said, exports could be boosted early in the year by front-loading, and interest rate cuts will provide support. Further fiscal stimulus in China is an upside risk, and U.S. tariffs hikes are a key factor to watch.
East Asia Inflation
In October vs September, inflation fell in China, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan but rose in Mongolia. East Asia’s 2025 inflation rate is forecast to average the lowest among all world regions, due largely to China’s huge domestic manufacturing capacity and intense competitive pressures in some sectors.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,374 | 11,661 | 13,960 | 13,912 | 13,908 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 |
| 5.7 | -2.9 | 10.9 | 1.2 | - | |
| 4.4 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 4.8 | 2.6 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -5.8 | -3.3 | -4.4 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 55.6 | 64.4 | 66.5 | 71.7 | 77.6 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.72 | 3.34 | 3.38 | 3.56 | 3.44 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,888 | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,437 | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,556 | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 16.6 | 18.5 | 17.6 | 16.4 | 16.5 |