Latin America Economic Outlook
Latin American GDP growth will likely be the weakest among all world regions this year on political and policy uncertainty, high levels of crime and corruption and a general lack of economic competitiveness versus other emerging markets. However, sizable interest rate cuts, lower inflation vs 2023 in most of the region and nearshoring investment will provide support.
Latin America Inflation
Inflation fell in March from February in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Uruguay, rose in Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Paraguay, and was stable in Mexico. Regional inflation should increase on average this year from 2023, mainly due to a more-than-doubling of inflation in Argentina; most other countries will see lower average inflation in 2024 versus 2023.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Latin America from 2010 to 2022.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per capita (USD) | 8,653 | 7,246 | 8,320 | 9,380 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 0.8 | -6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 1.6 | -7.6 | 8.3 | 5.3 | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | -0.5 | -11.5 | 16.4 | 5.3 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.5 | -6.9 | 7.7 | 1.9 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.4 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.2 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.7 | -8.4 | -4.1 | -3.5 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 59.1 | 68.9 | 62.9 | 61.1 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.6 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 15.5 | 18.1 |
| CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 9.61 | 5.84 | 9.55 | 18.91 | - |
| Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 323 | 345 | 404 | 442 | 425 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.1 | -0.2 | -1.9 | -2.5 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,037 | 948 | 1,213 | 1,411 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,020 | 856 | 1,171 | 1,425 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 832 | 871 | 908 | 850 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 39.6 | 48.2 | 42.8 | 37.9 | - |