Latin America Economic Outlook
Latin America’s economy should accelerate next year as inflation and interest rates decline. However, the region will remain a global laggard, with activity held back by sociopolitical instability, high crime, corruption, and minimal involvement in global value chains. Extreme weather and greater U.S. protectionism under a Trump presidency are downside risks.
Latin America Inflation
From July to August, inflation fell in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, and Mexico, while rising in Bolivia, Uruguay, and Chile. Most economies will see lower average inflation in 2024 vs 2023, though currency depreciation and subsidy reform will boost inflation in Argentina. Most countries should then see reduced price pressures in 2025.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Latin America from 2010 to 2021.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,561 | 7,169 | 8,245 | 9,306 | 10,434 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 0.8 | -6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 |
| 1.5 | -7.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | |
| -0.5 | -11.5 | 16.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.5 | -6.7 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 6.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.7 | -8.4 | -4.1 | -3.4 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 59.4 | 69.2 | 63.0 | 61.3 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.6 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 15.5 | 18.2 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 838 | 876 | 913 | 854 | 885 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -0.1 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -1.3 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,039 | 949 | 1,215 | 1,414 | 1,388 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 9.63 | 5.86 | 9.58 | 19.02 | 20.28 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,031 | 864 | 1,180 | 1,432 | 1,334 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 39.6 | 48.3 | 42.9 | 37.9 | - |