Major Economies Economic Outlook
So far this year, our Consensus for 2025 GDP growth has been upgraded in the U.S. and Japan and downgraded in European G7 economies plus Canada on Trump tariff threats. Panelists see the U.S. remaining the G7’s standout performer in 2025. Other G7 nations will see weaker growth, particularly the three largest Euro area economies, which are seen expanding below 1%.
Major Economies Inflation
In January, inflation rose from December in all G7 economies. This year, inflation is forecast to average slightly above central banks’ 2.0% targets across the board, following forecast upgrades in recent months in response to rising U.S. protectionism and higher-than-expected past inflation readings. That said, lower average commodity prices will cap inflation.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -5.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -3.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -7.1 | 5.6 | 2.0 | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.5 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 133 | 127 | 121 | 120 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.03 | -0.02 | 3.31 | 4.58 | 3.71 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.1 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 48,900 | 54,151 | 55,309 | 58,653 | 60,828 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 2,856 | 3,481 | 3,979 | 3,820 | 3,808 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,938 | 4,768 | 5,518 | 5,160 | 5,312 |