Major Economies Economic Outlook
In 2025, the U.S. is expected to remain the G7’s standout performer, with Canada recording the second-fastest GDP growth. At the other end of the spectrum, the three largest Euro area economies are forecast to record expansions below 1% next year. The extent of global tariff hikes and the pace of monetary easing are key risk factors.
Major Economies Inflation
In November, inflation rose from October in the Euro area and the U.S. and fell in Canada. Japan and the UK hadn’t reported data at the time of writing. Next year, inflation should average close to G7 central banks’ 2.0% targets, tamed by lower commodity prices. However, our panelists have revised up their forecasts over the last month on the threat of higher tariffs.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2021.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.9 | -4.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 1.5 | -5.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | |
| 3.7 | -3.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.8 | -7.1 | 5.6 | 2.0 | -0.6 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.5 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 113 | 133 | 127 | 121 | 120 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.5 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.79 | -0.03 | -0.02 | 3.31 | 4.58 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 50,035 | 48,900 | 54,151 | 55,308 | 58,649 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,271 | 2,856 | 3,481 | 3,979 | 3,818 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,328 | 3,938 | 4,768 | 5,518 | 5,161 |