Major Economies Economic Outlook
Our panelists expect most G7 economies to record faster GDP growth next year compared to 2024 amid falling interest rates. However, France’s economy could lose some steam as the Olympics boost disappears and the government tightens its fiscal stance, while the U.S. economy is set to slow following four straight years of above-trend growth.
Major Economies Inflation
In October, inflation rose from September in the Euro area and the U.S. Next year, inflation should average relatively close to central banks’ 2.0% targets, kept in check by lower commodity prices. The U.S. and the UK are set to have the G7’s highest inflation rates, the former due to likely tariff hikes and the latter on a looser fiscal stance.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2021.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.9 | -4.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 1.5 | -5.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | |
| 3.7 | -3.9 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.8 | -7.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | -0.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.5 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 113 | 133 | 127 | 121 | 120 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.5 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.79 | -0.03 | -0.02 | 3.31 | 4.58 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 50,035 | 48,900 | 54,135 | 55,286 | 58,627 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,271 | 2,856 | 3,479 | 3,975 | 3,816 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,328 | 3,938 | 4,768 | 5,516 | 5,160 |