Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
With the Strait of Hormuz shut for longer than anticipated, our panelists further cut their 2026 GDP growth projections for the region’s economy in May, with Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE most affected. Our panel now expects MENA GDP to increase at the slowest speed in the post-pandemic era.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Higher commodity prices owing to the war mean our panelists now see MENA’s aggregate inflation rate increasing this year, albeit remaining below the 2022–2024 peaks. Iran, Lebanon and Yemen have seen the largest forecast hikes, reflecting their involvement in the conflict and dependence on commodity imports. Wealthy Gulf states are less exposed due to state subsidies.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 51.6 | 43.4 | 43.5 | 44.9 | 48.6 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.5 | 11.4 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 4.1 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.5 | 15.3 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 2.9 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 204 | 428 | 307 | 228 | 134 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 850 | 1,210 | 1,438 | 1,481 | 1,511 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,992 | 10,588 | 10,140 | 10,358 | 10,454 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 646 | 782 | 1,131 | 1,253 | 1,376 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.4 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.84 | 5.73 | 6.67 | 6.78 | 5.33 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.4 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 6.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 44.7 | 39.7 | 41.7 | 43.6 | 45.9 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | 2.4 | -1.5 | -2.4 | -4.2 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 10.3 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.0 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.5 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,116 | 1,148 | 1,219 | 1,274 | 1,349 |