Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
Regional economic growth should accelerate further next year, to above the 2014–2023 average of 2.5%. OPEC+ is set to begin hiking output from December this year, providing a welcome boon to the oil sector. Further support will come from speedy growth of the non-oil sector in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The main downside risk is wider regional conflict.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Next year, price pressures across the region will still differ notably, although less acutely than in recent years due to greater currency stability in Egypt, Iran and Lebanon. In countries with U.S. dollar pegs, inflation should be entrenched in low single digits. Currency devaluations, trade disruptions, conflict and spikes in food prices pose upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | -4.2 | - | 7.4 | - | |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | -3.1 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 1.5 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 870 | 768 | 890 | 783 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.7 | -9.5 | -3.0 | 2.6 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.6 | -0.9 | 4.6 | 9.5 | - |
| 2.3 | -9.9 | - | 19.7 | - | |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 43.2 | 55.9 | 51.8 | 43.9 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.5 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 11.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.17 | 2.13 | 2.09 | 5.78 | 6.74 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 41.2 | 49.0 | 45.1 | 40.2 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,088 | 838 | 1,173 | 1,215 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,053 | 1,034 | 1,115 | 1,147 | 1,218 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,953 | 7,064 | 8,326 | 9,791 | 9,245 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.4 | -5.0 | 4.1 | 9.0 | -1.4 |