Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
Our panelists have clipped their forecasts for the region’s GDP growth in 2025 over the last month, with tariffs under Trump’s upcoming presidency hitting the global economy and thus demand for MENA exports. That said, GDP growth should rise above the 2014–2023 average of 2.5% as OPEC+ hikes output and the non-oil economies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE race ahead.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Inflation will still vary sharply between MENA countries in 2025, but by less than in recent years as currencies in Egypt, Iran and Lebanon stabilize. In countries with U.S. dollar pegs, price pressures should remain in low single digits. Upside risks include currency devaluations, trade disruptions, conflict and spikes in food prices.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | -4.2 | - | 7.4 | - | |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | -3.1 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 1.5 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 870 | 768 | 890 | 783 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.7 | -9.5 | -3.0 | 2.6 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.6 | -0.9 | 4.6 | 9.5 | - |
| 2.1 | -8.4 | - | 19.7 | - | |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 43.2 | 55.9 | 51.8 | 44.2 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.5 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 11.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.17 | 2.13 | 2.09 | 5.78 | 6.74 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 41.3 | 49.1 | 45.2 | 40.2 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,088 | 838 | 1,173 | 1,215 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,053 | 1,034 | 1,115 | 1,147 | 1,218 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,956 | 7,066 | 8,328 | 9,791 | 9,245 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.4 | -5.0 | 4.1 | 9.0 | -1.7 |