South Asia Economic Outlook
In 2025, our panelists project GDP to grow slightly more quickly than in the prior year in South Asia. As a result, GDP growth is seen remaining above the 5.7% average of the past decade as population growth and foreign investment remain robust. Downside risks include extreme weather and U.S. tariffs.
South Asia Inflation
Price pressures continued to trend down across all South Asian economies in January. In 2025, inflation is seen declining below its 10-year average of 5.7% as oil and food prices ease. Moreover, our panelists cut their forecasts for the year over the past month in light of the recently low inflation readings.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South Asia from 2011 to 2020.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -7.0 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.9 | 5.7 | - | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.6 | -6.4 | -6.4 | -5.6 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 82.0 | 78.0 | 77.0 | 78.7 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.4 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 7.9 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 4.30 | 4.57 | 7.46 | 7.82 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 644 | 679 | 624 | 686 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 23.8 | 22.2 | 21.4 | 21.3 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.4 | -1.2 | -2.4 | -0.9 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 357 | 502 | 548 | 528 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 503 | 762 | 886 | 809 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,906 | 2,211 | 2,320 | 2,428 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.3 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 7.9 | - |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 4.9 | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -5.9 | 15.1 | 7.9 | 6.0 | - |