South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Regional GDP growth is forecast to match 2024’s projection in 2025. Juggernaut Turkey is set to slow amid cooling spending growth. Nonetheless, most countries in the region will grow at a faster clip as interest rate cuts boost investment and healthier EU demand lifts exports. Escalations in the wars in Gaza and Ukraine remain the main downside risks.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
SEE inflation was stable in October compared with September, as dips in Turkey and Albania offset stronger price pressures elsewhere in the region. In 2025, inflation is forecast to almost halve from 2024’s level due to past monetary tightening, cooling commodity prices and a high base effect. Premature monetary easing and commodity price spikes are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2021.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 12.0 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 8.6 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.1 | -1.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| 2.4 | -0.4 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 8.4 | |
| -2.5 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 9.3 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.9 | -1.7 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 0.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -5.8 | -4.1 | -2.2 | -4.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 57.0 | 67.0 | 65.4 | 55.3 | 51.2 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 8.7 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 43.1 | 32.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 7.03 | 9.44 | 7.80 | 6.93 | 26.69 |