South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
In 2025, regional GDP growth is forecast to broadly match this year’s projection. Heavyweight Turkey is forecast to decelerate on softer public and private spending growth. That said, growth in most economies in the region will strengthen, aided by monetary policy easing and rising exports. Escalations in the wars in Ukraine and Gaza remain key downside risks.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
SEE inflation declined in September from August, as price growth fell in most regional economies. Next year, inflation will cool markedly from 2024’s projection—roughly halving in Turkey—tamed across the region by high base effects, prior monetary tightening and lower commodity prices. Premature monetary easing and commodity price spikes pose upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2021.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 12.0 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 8.6 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.0 | -1.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 |
| 2.3 | -0.6 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 8.5 | |
| -2.7 | 3.6 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 8.7 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.9 | -1.7 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 0.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -5.8 | -4.1 | -2.2 | -4.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 56.8 | 66.7 | 65.1 | 55.2 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 8.8 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 43.2 | 32.6 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 7.05 | 9.48 | 7.84 | 6.94 | 26.83 |