Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Regional growth should accelerate from 2024 next year on lower inflation and interest rates, continued inflows of funds from multilateral lenders, and investment in the region. Further progress on debt restructuring deals and economic reforms will add tailwinds. Extreme weather, election-related uncertainty and policies under President-elect Trump are factors to watch.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation was broadly stable at September’s rate in October as higher price pressures in Ghana and Nigeria were offset by lower inflation in Angola and South Africa. Available data for November showed lingering diverging dynamics. Inflation should wane in most countries in 2025 from 2024; a stronger U.S. dollar and extreme weather events are key upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.4 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 25.0 | 24.8 | 29.5 | 29.1 | 27.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.6 | -6.9 | -5.1 | -4.6 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 47.5 | 55.0 | 54.5 | 54.3 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.8 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 14.8 | 15.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 10.09 | 8.50 | 8.29 | 11.62 | 13.23 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | -2.3 | -0.6 | -1.7 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 278 | 229 | 315 | 367 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 260 | 217 | 268 | 323 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 150 | 138 | - | - | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 49.9 | 55.8 | 48.5 | 46.0 | - |
| 1.7 | -2.4 | 11.6 | 1.1 | -0.2 | |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,961 | 1,768 | 1,959 | 2,060 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.7 | -1.8 | 4.9 | 3.6 | - |
| 4.8 | -8.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 |